How to Calculate Expected Value in Casino Betting

How to Calculate Expected Value in Casino Betting

Understanding expected value (EV) is fundamental for anyone serious about casino betting. Expected value represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet over the long term. It is a statistical measure that takes into account all possible outcomes, their probabilities, and the associated payoffs. Calculating EV helps players make informed decisions by quantifying the potential profitability or loss of a bet before placing it.

To calculate the expected value in casino betting, you multiply the value of each possible outcome by its probability and then sum these products. For example, if a bet pays £10 with a 20% chance of winning and loses £5 with an 80% chance, the EV is (0.2 × £10) + (0.8 × -£5) = £2 – £4 = -£2. This negative EV indicates a loss on average. By consistently choosing bets with positive EV, players can maximise their chances of long-term profit. This principle is widely used by professional gamblers and analysts to assess games and betting strategies.

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